Demographic Dividend

Provincial Differential Analysis of the Demographic Dividend Status

The demographic dividend (DD) is a window of opportunity for economic growth which begins with demographic shifts in a population’s age structure, mainly due to fertility decline. 

This occurs when the proportion of the working age population (aged 15 to 64) is higher than the proportion of the non-working-age population (under 15 and 65 and over). 

This means a lower number of dependents and a higher number of people who can work.  With an appropriate mix of education, skills, employment opportunities, and health, coupled with strong governance and effective policy frameworks, this group of people can drive the country’s economic growth and social developments. 

In PNG, with a still high fertility rate of 4.2 children per woman, a slight decline from the rate reported in 2006 of 4.4 children per woman (DHS 2016-2018), the country’s DD window has not started yet.  The results of the household survey as discussed above, will confirm if this pattern is still valid. 

Provincial differences in PNG, however, show promising opportunities in terms of promoting sexual and reproductive health rights through the use of contraceptive methods, in terms of educating and employing women and youth, among other things, which are essential for the country to achieve and reap the benefits from the DD. These differences have to be identified and studied carefully in order to determine provinces with potential of achieving the DD and provinces that lagged behind.  In both cases, it is important that DD interventions, plans, and programs are appropriately designed.